Call in the Quants!

Flawed risk modelling has been blamed for the failure to predict the occurence and intensity of the global financial crisis that took hold early last year and reached its peak one year ago.

In this intriguing New York Times article by Steve Lohr published 12 September, over reliance on computerised risk models that emphasise "efficient market" dynamics can cause real problems in determining the likelihood of catastrophic events, since they do not incorporate other critical variables including the human response to crisis and loss of confidence.

The article quotes an approach by Andrew Lo at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who argues that an understanding of liquidity risk requires a new perspective based on the "adaptive-market hypotheseis" which does not assume that markets, and their participants, behave as rationally as is assumed in the efficient market model.

To what degree is this true - and what implications might these improved models of liquidity risk also provide a blueprint for risk modelling in BCM? The future will tell.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/business/13unboxed.html

Google's new influenza tracker

Google have recently set up an influenza tracker that uses freely available public data to indicate where influenza levels are increasing, both within Australia and around the world.

We should of course treat this data (as we do all) with some critical scepticm, but this at least has the potential to add to our store of knowledge and ability to respond to pandemic-related events. An interesting new use for google earth.

http://www.google.org/flutrends/

The site also suggests an amazing predictive link between global google search queries and CDC trend data on reported influenza cases.

http://www.google.org/about/flutrends/how.html

Organisational Resilience

Welcome to my blog!

In an era of increasing uncertainty, customer demands and exogenous threats, management are turning as never before to the concepts, and practice of Organizational Resilience.

This blog is dedicated to sharing views on the nature of this emerging discipline that is becoming increasingly central to the survival, and success, of corporate organisations worldwide.

Try the link to Continuity Central where my current thoughts on Organsiational Resilience and Crisis Management are available. I hope you find it useful!

http://www.continuitycentral.com/feature0636.html